Judgement under uncertainty

Thirty-five chapters examine the mental shortcuts people use when they judge under uncertainty, and the systematic errors those shortcuts produce. The evidence comes from laboratory experiments and from real settings in society, medicine and politics.

The chapters take up the representativeness and availability heuristics, along with the difficulty of judging covariation and control. Further topics are overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis and risk perception. The final chapters turn to methods for correcting and improving judgments.

This is an edited collection of academic research, not a single argument from start to finish. About half the chapters are edited versions of classic articles, and the rest were written new for this volume. Most survey several studies or whole subareas of research and application, so few of them report one experiment in detail.

The book suits students and researchers who want a broad grounding in the field. It also serves decision makers who want to understand their own judgments and make them better. Expect a scholarly reference with a wide range, not a light introduction.